Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.407730 1.480181 1.555275 1.639109 1.730307 1.826762 1.936813
2025-11-02 1.292374 1.393713 1.503099 1.630636 1.776142 1.938053 2.133370
2025-11-09 1.209044 1.324922 1.453300 1.607325 1.788806 1.998035 2.260797
2025-11-16 1.143611 1.268869 1.410489 1.584314 1.794553 2.044175 2.368601
2025-11-23 1.101046 1.235033 1.389272 1.582499 1.821860 2.113965 2.506236
2025-11-30 1.070940 1.213196 1.379664 1.592197 1.861461 2.198806 2.666589
2025-12-07 1.030457 1.176413 1.349436 1.573700 1.863040 2.233452 2.761094
2025-12-14 0.988857 1.136168 1.312682 1.544387 1.847972 2.243901 2.821312
2025-12-21 0.957628 1.107179 1.288274 1.528985 1.849266 2.274884 2.910790
2025-12-28 0.942413 1.097207 1.286876 1.542579 1.888855 2.359147 3.082153
2026-01-04 0.921289 1.078847 1.273814 1.539816 1.905487 2.411550 3.209340
2026-01-11 0.910091 1.072487 1.275622 1.556445 1.949011 2.503978 3.404549
2026-01-18 0.890906 1.055772 1.263983 1.555247 1.968645 2.564600 3.558262
2026-01-25 0.871165 1.037695 1.249877 1.549974 1.982020 2.616539 3.702601
2026-02-01 0.846298 1.012090 1.224785 1.528200 1.969958 2.628410 3.779613
2026-02-08 0.823103 0.987980 1.200854 1.506970 1.957391 2.638259 3.853232
2026-02-15 0.808542 0.974816 1.191152 1.505290 1.973536 2.693770 4.012431
2026-02-22 0.798686 0.967553 1.189103 1.514251 2.005858 2.776822 4.230110
2026-03-01 0.780101 0.948054 1.169636 1.497158 1.997153 2.791738 4.320223
2026-03-08 0.758894 0.924513 1.143942 1.470054 1.971593 2.776849 4.350643
2026-03-15 0.743059 0.907886 1.127394 1.455803 1.965492 2.794301 4.446680
2026-03-22 0.737005 0.904388 1.128999 1.468382 2.002310 2.887350 4.706562
2026-03-29 0.726244 0.894143 1.120769 1.465825 2.014471 2.937784 4.882842